How the Ramp Test FTP Estimation Was Created

How the Ramp Test FTP Estimation Was Created

Back in the late 1990s, while at university, I collected data to develop a way of estimating "FTP" (though that term had not yet been coined) from a ramp test. This was long before the concept of FTP was formally published by Andy Coggan, and at the time, there was little discussion about estimating a cyclist’s sustained power output using this method.

The Rationale Behind Estimating FTP from MAP

In the UK, the 25-mile time trial (~60 minutes) was one of the most popular race formats. Terms such as "anaerobic threshold" and "OBLA" were frequently referenced in the cycling press, often in the context of a 60-minute effort. Ramp/VO2max testing was the primary testing method for cyclists at the time, and given that VO2max represents the upper limit of aerobic metabolism, I hypothesized that submaximal power (~60-minute power) could be predicted from it. At that time, I was aware that most athletes could sustain around 85 - 90% of their VO2max for approximately 60 minutes.

The Initial Testing and Findings

I gathered data from around 100 cyclists, covering a wide range of abilities: from club riders to elite racers, professional cyclists, and even three-hour record holders. The cohort also included "World Tour" professionals (though the term didn’t exist at the time). Initially, we conducted ramp tests, 20-minute TTs (16.1km indoor TTs), and 40km TTs (~50-60 minutes) under controlled conditions.

After analyzing the data, I found that for most riders, their 60-minute power output fell within 72-77% of their maximum one-minute power (MAP) achieved during the ramp test. Only a couple of athletes fell outside this range—one being a triathlete. This 72-77% range was remarkably consistent across a variety of cycling disciplines and ability levels.

Refinements and Additional Research

We expanded testing by including assessments on a motorised Woodway treadmill set at an 8% incline to simulate Alpe d’Huez. This revealed that cyclists typically produced 5-10% more power uphill compared to riding a Monark ergometer on the flat. The triathlete in our study was an exception, producing the same power on both terrain types.

Through further research, I also developed different ramp test protocols for different groups (elite males, non-elite males, and females), which were later used by British Cycling.

Over the following years, I continued testing more riders, further validating the 72-77% range. By around 2000, discussions about estimating 60-minute power from a ramp test frequently emerged on the Wattage List (a popular email list for power-based training discussions). Tired of repeatedly typing "72-77% of MAP," I started simplifying it to "75%." This shorthand gained traction, and by 2000-2001, I wrote an article for Cyclingnews outlining the method, which can still be found here.

Adoption and Industry Recognition (or Lack Thereof)

Over time, the 75% of MAP estimation method became widely accepted and used by numerous training platforms. Today, Rouvy, MyWhoosh, IndieVelo, and others acknowledge this as the basis for their ramp test FTP estimation. Zwift also uses my formula, though they refuse to credit its origins. While I understand that my work is in the public domain, it would still be nice to see proper attribution.

Why the Ramp Test Is So Useful

When I began coaching in 1997, I realised that many riders were reluctant to complete a full 25-mile TT for testing purposes. Instead, using a combination of a ramp/MAP test and a 20-minute test proved to be an effective way to gauge an athlete’s fitness without requiring them to commit to a full hour-long maximal effort. This approach remains a cornerstone of power-based cycling training today.

Final Thoughts

The ramp test FTP estimation has become a standard in modern cycling training, helping countless cyclists and coaches assess performance efficiently. While it’s not perfect for every individual, its consistency across large datasets makes it an invaluable tool.

So next time you complete a ramp test and see your estimated FTP, you now know the history behind it!